Modelling the effect of climate change induced soil settling on drinking water distribution pipes.

In the future, the more frequent occurrence of severe heat waves and long dry periods due to climate change can cause lowering of the ground water level and therefore consolidation of the soil. Consequently, increased differential settlements are expected that may damage underground water infrastructure. Models were developed to assess the impact of differential settlements on pipe failure. The main concept of these models is that the pipe-soil system is schematized as a beam on an elastic foundation using Winkler type springs. For climate change induced settling, a parametric function of the soil settlement is proposed. A Monte-Carlo analysis has been applied to predict pipe failure probabilities.