Early warning thresholds for partially saturated slopes in volcanic ashes

Rainfall-induced landslides in steep soil slopes of volcanic origin are a major threat to human lives and infrastructure. In the context of constructing early warning systems in regions where extensive data on landslide occurrences and associated rainfall are inexistent, physically-based tools offer the possibility to establish thresholds for measurable field quantities. In this paper, a combined finite element infinite slope model is presented to study the transient hydraulic response of volcanic ash slopes to a series of rainfall events and to estimate seasonal safety factors. Furthermore, analytical considerations of partially saturated infinite slopes are made to define capillary stress thresholds for a landslide early warning system.