Parametric Monte Carlo studies of rock slopes based on the Hoek–Brown failure criterion

Probabilistic evaluation of slope failures is increasingly seen as the most appropriate framework for accounting for uncertainties in design. This paper performs reliability assessments for rock slopes based on the latest version of the Hoek–Brown failure criterion. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the use of a new form of stability number for rock slope designs that has been recently developed from finite element upper and lower bound limit analysis methods, and to provide guidance for its use in probabilistic assessments. The analyses show that by using this newly proposed stability number, the probability of failure (Pf) obtained from case studies agrees well with the true state of the slope. In addition, this paper details a procedure to determine the magnitude of safety factor required for rock slope design.