On accuracy of prediction of pre-failure deformations of granular soils

The problem of accuracy of predictions of pre-failure deformations of granular soils is considered. Firstly, the deterministic incremental equations describing qualitative character of such deformations are presented. These equations are based on extensive experimental data, obtained from the tri-axial compression tests. The parameters appearing in the incremental equations are assumed as random numbers, characterized by their mean values and standard deviations. The normal probability distribution is assumed. Then, such a model is applied to predict strains caused by some simple deterministic stress paths. The incremental equations are integrated for a large number of random coefficients, generated by a computer program. The final results are presented as either paths or points in the strain space, and respective density of probability distribution is calculated. The proposed method and results obtained show, that in mechanics of granular media we cannot expect “a good agreement” between predictions of theoretical models and experimental results, but only a kind of agreement measured by probability. The results presented should be important for both theoretical modellers and experimentalists.