Risk-based determination of heat demand for central and district heating by a probability theory approach

• The uncertainty of the heat demand for central and district heating was analyzed.
• A method was developed using probability theory approach.
• We determined the heat demand uncertainty of a heating consumer.
• We defined the simultaneous heat demands for a group of consumers.
• A case study is presented for the heat demand uncertainty of an apartment.

One of the most important design tasks related to the establishment and operation of heat supply systems involve design heat demand of a required reliability level. Determination of heat demand for central and district heating is set out in standards in the practice of both Hungary and most European countries. Methodologies reflect a deterministic tendency. The uncertainty of heat demand for heating so specified is not analyzed: values are not associated with reliability, probability and confidence interval figures. Our article presents the method of risk-based determination of heat demand for central and district heating by probability theory approach.