A simplified method to predict hourly building cooling load for urban energy planning

It is not feasible to apply the traditional prediction method to predict hourly building cooling load at the urban energy planning stage because of the limited building information and complexity of energy prediction. This paper presents a simplified prediction model: Hourly Cooling Load Factor Method (HCLFM) that can provide quick and fair estimate of building cooling load for large-scale urban energy planning. The paper introduces the assumptions and principles of the proposed method, as well as discussing the implication and limitation of the approach. As a verification and demonstration, the method is applied to an office building in Beijing. The predicted results show that the dynamical trend of the cooling load is reasonable. The study further analyzes the potential causes of prediction errors and the significance of various cooling load influence factors.

► We present a simplified prediction model (HCLFM) that can provide quick estimate of building cooling load for large-scale urban energy planning.
► We introduce the assumptions and principles of the model, as well as discussing the implication and limitation of the approach.
► The proposed method is valuable at the urban planning stage when minimum building information is available.
► HCLFM is used to predict the hourly cooling load of each single building first, and then to accumulate the hourly predicted results of all buildings.