Extent of inertia caused by the existing building stock against an energy transition in the Netherlands

Thirty percent of the total worldwide energy is consumed by the residential sector, making it a very significant frontier for energy transitions for sustainability. While the Netherlands aims to achieve a remarkable reduction in the energy consumption in residential buildings with policies mainly aiming at new constructions; little attention is being paid to the existing stock, and this existing stock creates inertia against a transition. Although this is a widely accepted issue, the extent of such inertia has not been analyzed explicitly. In that respect, this study is a preliminary study that aims to demonstrate the importance of the existing housing stock, and the inertia it can cause against an energy transition. Besides, policy options such as increasing efficiency standards for new constructions and increasing the turnover rate of the existing stock are evaluated through simulation experiments using the model developed for the Dutch system. The set of experiments discussed in the paper provides a better understanding about this inertia, as well as what needs to be done for achieving significant progress in a residential energy transition.

► Our exploratory simulations reveal the extent of inertia due to house stock.
► Improving only new dwellings can barely compensate growth in residential energy demand.
► Scenario runs demonstrate the extent of renovation required to meet national goals.
► To meet national long term goals, existing stock should be renovated extensively.
► Policies to boost renovations and stock turnover may counteract when applied together.