Developing future hourly weather files for studying the impact of climate change on building energy performance in Hong Kong

The concern on climate change leads to growing demand for minimization of energy use. As building is one of the largest energy consuming sectors, it is essential to study the impact of climate change on building energy performance. In this regard, building energy simulation software is a useful tool. A set of appropriate typical weather files is one of the key factors towards successful building energy simulation. This paper reports the work of developing a set of weather data files for subtropical Hong Kong, taking into the effect of future climate change. Projected monthly mean climate changes from a selected General Circulation Model for three future periods under two emission scenarios were integrated into an existing typical meteorological year weather file by a morphing method. Through this work, six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong were produced. A typical office building and a residential flat were modeled using building simulation program EnergyPlus. Hourly building energy simulations were carried out. The simulated results indicate that there will be substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change, ranging from 2.6% to 14.3% and from 3.7% to 24% for office building and residential flat, respectively.

► An appropriate General Circulation Model (GCM) MIRCO3_2-MED (Japan) was selected based on the quality of its prediction.
► Six sets of future weather files for subtropical Hong Kong have been produced.
► A typical office building and a residential flat have been modeled using a renowned building simulation program EnergyPlus.
► The simulation results reveal substantial increase in A/C energy consumption under the impact of future climate change.