Towards probabilistic performance metrics for climate change impact studies

This paper explores the current state-of-the-art in performance indicators and use of probabilistic approaches used in climate change impact studies. It presents a critical review of recent publications in this field, focussing on (1) metrics for energy use for heating and cooling, emissions, overheating and high-level performance aspects, and (2) uptake of uncertainty and risk analysis. This is followed by a case study, which is used to explore some of the contextual issues around the broader uptake of climate change impact studies in practice. The work concludes that probabilistic predictions of the impact of climate change are feasible, but only based on strict and explicitly stated assumptions.

► Critical review of metrics used in climate change impact studies.
► Critical review of the use of probabilistic approaches in climate change impact studies.
► Case study for the exploration of contextual issues around the uptake of climate change impact studies in building engineering practice.
► Further research needed on system lifetime, deterioration, and into the boundaries of what is practically sensible in terms of climate change impact studies.