Study of DXA-derived lateral–medial cortical bone thickness in assessing hip fracture risk

• A new algorithm developed for estimating cortical bone thickness from clinical DXA images.
• Validation of the algorithm with QCT Pro, a commercial software for processing QCT scans.
• A more effective risk predictor constructed from finite element studies.
• The risk predictor can be readily integrated into the current clinical procedure.

The currently available clinical tools have limited accuracy in predicting hip fracture risk in individuals. We investigated the possibility of using normalized cortical bone thickness (NCBT) estimated from the patient's hip DXA (dual energy X-ray absorptiometry) as an alternative predictor of hip fracture risk. Hip fracture risk index (HFRI) derived from subject-specific DXA-based finite element model was used as a guideline in constructing the mathematical expression of NCBT. We hypothesized that if NCBT has stronger correlations with HFRI than the single risk factors such as areal BMD (aBMD), then NCBT can be a better predictor. The hypothesis was studied using 210 clinical cases, including 60 hip fracture cases, obtained from the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Database. The results showed that, in general HFRI has much stronger correlations with NCBT than any of the single risk factors; the strongest correlation was observed at the superior side of the narrowest femoral neck with r2 = 0.81 (p < 0.001), which is much higher than the correlation with femoral aBMD, r2 = 0.50 (p < 0.001). The capability of aBMD, NCBT, and HFRI in discriminating the hip fracture cases from the non-fracture ones, expressed as the area under the curve with 95% confidence interval, AUC (95% CI), is respectively 0.627 (0.593–0.657), 0.714 (0.644–0.784) and 0.839 (0.787–0.892). The short-term repeatability of aBMD, NCBT, and HFRI, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV, %), was found to be in the range of (0.64–1.22), (1.93–3.41), (3.10–4.16), respectively. We thus concluded that NCBT is potentially a better predictor of hip fracture risk.