A probabilistic framework for hurricane damage assessment considering non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions

• A probabilistic framework to assess hurricane damage is proposed.
• The non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions are considered.
• Hurricane damage is more sensitive to the increasing of hurricane intensity.
• With correlation included, the probability of severe damage increases.

The intensity and/or frequency of hurricane storms may change due to the impact of potential climate change. This paper presents a probabilistic framework to assess the hurricane damage to residential constructions considering the non-stationarity and correlation in hurricane actions. The framework includes a non-stationary Poisson process of hurricane occurrence, a failure rate function of hurricane damage, and explicit formulas for evaluating the mean and variance of annual hurricane damage. The framework is illustrated using a case study of Miami-Dade County, Florida, where the current probabilistic models of hurricane intensity and occurrence rate were estimated by examining hurricane history in this area. The impacts of time-variant hurricane intensity and time-variant hurricane frequency on building damage are assessed individually using the developed framework. The paper also investigates the effects of correlation in hurricane wind speeds on hurricane damage.