A modular framework for performance-based durability engineering: From exposure to impacts

• A modular framework for performance-based assessment of infrastructure durability is proposed.
• The framework includes uncertainty in exposure, deterioration, repair, and impacts.
• Costs and downtime of a coastal reinforced concrete structure are assessed.
• Results are compared to traditional Monte Carlo approaches.

A modular framework for assessing the economic, environmental, and social impacts of structural durability has been proposed and applied to a concrete structure expected to undergo climate-change-accelerated chloride-induced reinforcement corrosion. The proposed performance-based durability engineering (PBDE) framework comprehensively considers uncertainty, accommodates non-stationary exposure, and computes quantitative sustainability metrics. Drawing on previous work in the nuclear risk and earthquake engineering communities, PBDE’s three analysis stages are de-coupled at pinch-points, allowing the use of a convolution integral to link uncertainty in exposure, deterioration and repair, and sustainability impacts. The convolution-based methodology for the PBDE framework has been compared with traditional Monte Carlo simulation. Results of the convolution approach were statistically equivalent to brute-force Monte Carlo analysis using the same number of simulations, and the convolution approach has advantages in deaggregation, backwards conditioning, and updating of results to reflect new information or models. Limitations of the convolution approach are discussed, as are possible techniques for decreasing computational expense and areas for future work. Potential applications for PBDE include design code calibration, decision support for climate change adaptation policy, and sensitivity assessment to direct research.