Seismic risk analysis with reliability methods, part I: Models

A library of probabilistic models for prediction of seismic risk is presented. The models are specifically intended for use with reliability methods to compute event probabilities, such as seismic loss probabilities. Several models are presented here for the first time. In particular, new and generic models are proposed for earthquake location, regional loss, building response, building damage, and building loss. Each model is presented with an explanation of its development and a discussion of its predictions. In addition, models from the literature are “smoothed” to make them amenable to reliability analysis. The models are implemented in a new computer program that is tailored for reliability and optimization analysis with many probabilistic models. The models and the computer program are employed in the companion paper to assess the seismic risk to the Vancouver metropolitan region in Canada.

▸ A library of probabilistic models for prediction of seismic risk is presented. ▸ New models for earthquake location, regional loss, and building loss are developed. ▸ Models from the literature are smoothed for use in reliability analysis with FORM. ▸ Models are implemented in a new program for multi-model reliability analysis. ▸ The models are employed in the companion paper for regional seismic risk analysis.