Efficient, accurate, and simple Markov chain model for the life-cycle analysis of bridge groups

ABSTRACTThis paper presents an efficient, accurate, and simple Markov chain model for the life-cycle analysis of individual bridges and bridge groups. The proposed model includes the effect of deterioration, maintenance actions, bridge failures, and rehabilitations. Compared to a comprehensive probabilistic simulation of the life-cycle, the proposed approach is characterized by a computational efficiency increased by several orders of magnitude and by simplicity of implementation. For practical applications, the proposed model provides also good accuracy.In addition, the model is appropriate for risk analysis. In fact, it treats explicitly all the sources of direct and indirect consequences: the bridge operational states, the bridge failures, and the maintenance/rehabilitation actions performed on the bridge. To demonstrate the technique, a realistic application is presented.

▸ A five-state Markov Chain model based on bridge operational conditions is presented. ▸ The model accounts for the effects of structural deterioration and rehabilitations. ▸ The approach is particularly useful for network-level risk analysis. ▸ Superior computational efficiency compared to simulation based approaches. ▸ Very good accuracy and simple numerical implementation for practical applications.