Do completed college majors respond to changes in wages?

• College majors rise when wages in related occupations rose in prior years.
• Relationship is statistically significant and largest for a three year lag.
• Relationship is stronger for majors with tighter connections to particular occupations.
• Women, blacks, Hispanics, and students with low test scores respond less.

In an analysis connecting labor market earnings to college major choices, we find statistically significant relationships between changes in wages by occupation and subsequent changes in college majors completed in related fields of college study between 1982 and 2012. College majors (defined at a detailed level) are most strongly related to wages observed three years earlier, when students were college freshmen. The responses to wages vary depending on the extent to which there is a strong mapping of majors into particular occupations. We also find that women, blacks, Hispanics, and students with low test scores are less likely to respond to wage changes. These findings have implications for policy interventions designed to align students’ major choices with labor market demand.