What will I be when I grow up? An analysis of childhood expectations and career outcomes

In this paper, we utilise the British National Child Development Study to explore the determinants of career expectations formed at the age of 16. We analyse the influence of careers advice and resources at school on career expectations as well as the influence of education. In addition, we explore the accuracy of occupational expectations as compared to the occupation that the respondents subsequently become employed in. Throughout our findings, human capital and gender play a pivotal role in explaining career expectations as well as explaining the accuracy of the occupational forecast. Interestingly, the level of school resources available for careers guidance in terms of the number of teachers who are qualified to give careers advice and the amount of specific careers guidance training received by these teachers both have relatively small effects upon career expectations.

Research highlights▶ Human capital and gender are important in explaining career expectations and the accuracy of the occupational forecast. ▶ School resources devoted to careers advice have limited influence on children's career expectations. ▶ Hearing about an occupation from a teacher is associated with a lower probability of expecting and entering low skilled occupations.