College selectivity and the Texas top 10% law

This paper addresses how institutional selectivity influences college preferences and enrollment decisions of Texas seniors in the presence of a putatively race-neutral admissions policy—the top 10% law. We analyze a representative survey of Texas high school seniors as of spring, 2002, who were re-interviewed 1 year later to evaluate differences in selectivity of college preferences and enrollment decisions according to three criteria targeted by the new admissions law: high school type, class rank and minority group status. Results based on conditional logit estimation produce three major conclusions. First, Texas seniors, and top decile graduates in particular, are highly responsive to institutional selectivity. Second, graduates from feeder and resource-affluent high schools are more likely, whereas their counterparts who graduated from resource-poor, Longhorn or Century scholarship high schools are less likely, to choose selective institutions as their first preference. Both for first college preference and enrollment decisions, blacks and Hispanics are less likely than whites to opt for selective colleges. Third, although disparities in selectivity of college preferences by high school type and minority group status persist among top decile graduates, these do not carry into actual matriculation—a result we attribute to the selection regime governing application and enrollment decisions.