کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
402660 676977 2010 10 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر هوش مصنوعی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Scenario analysis using Bayesian networks: A case study in energy sector
چکیده انگلیسی

This paper provides a general overview of creating scenarios for energy policies using Bayesian Network (BN) models. BN is a useful tool to analyze the complex structures, which allows observation of the current structure and basic consequences of any strategic change. This research will propose a decision model that will support the researchers in forecasting and scenario analysis fields. The proposed model will be implemented in a case study for Turkey. The choice of the case is based on complexities of a renewable energy resource rich country. Turkey is a heavy energy importer discussing new investments. Domestic resources could be evaluated under different scenarios aiming the sustainability. Achievements of this study will open a new vision for the decision makers in energy sector.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Knowledge-Based Systems - Volume 23, Issue 3, April 2010, Pages 267–276
نویسندگان
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