Integrating Homo sapiens into ecological models: Imperatives of climate change

• There is a need to include human behaviour in ecological models of climate change.
• A useful modelling paradigm: coupled human and natural systems.
• A useful modelling paradigm: climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
• In the presentation of results, nonlinear thinking should be actively encouraged.
• Models can be made “keeling-dependant”, with carbon emissions and reductions controlled through human behaviour.

In the opening lecture at a 2013 Banff International Research Station (BIRS) workshop on the impact of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions, Henri Berestycki (École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales) asked a crucial question: Can a species keep pace with a changing climate? “Species” in this context was generally understood to be all living things on Earth (except humans). But mounting scientific evidence suggests that it is time to pose the parallel question: Can Homo sapiens keep pace with a changing climate? Furthermore, should we merely “keep pace”, or should we strive to get ahead and then do our utmost to stop any further climate change?In this paper we document the very real potential for climate change to have devastating consequences before the end of this century. The urgency of the situation calls for concerted action by anyone who understands the problem, and mathematical ecologists are uniquely trained to contribute to such efforts. We ask modellers to deliberately incorporate the species H. sapiens into their modelling work, and offer suggestions as to how this might be done. Ultimately modellers must seek ways to provide guidance to citizens and policy-makers as we all wrestle with the most important existential threat of our time.