Evaluating the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits: The example of red king crab in Bristol Bay

• We developed a model of pre-recruit crab which includes the impacts of ocean acidification on a vulnerable life-history stage.
• We linked the pre-recruit model to a population dynamics model of post-recruit crab.
• We used an integrated bioeconomic model to evaluate the impacts of ocean acidification on future yields and profits.

A stage-structured pre-recruit model was developed to capture hypotheses regarding the impact of ocean acidification on the survival of pre-recruit crab. The model was parameterized using life history and survival data for red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) derived from experiments conducted at the National Marine Fisheries Service Kodiak laboratory. A parameterized pre-recruit model was linked to a post-recruit population dynamics model for adult male red king crab in Bristol Bay, Alaska that included commercial fishery harvest. This coupled population dynamics model was integrated with a bioeconomic model of commercial fishing sector profits to forecast how the impacts of ocean acidification on the survival of pre-recruit red king crab will affect yields and profits for the Bristol Bay red king crab fishery for a scenario that includes future ocean pH levels predictions. Expected yields and profits were projected to decline over the next 50–100 years in this scenario given reductions in pre-recruit survival due to decreasing ocean pH levels over time. The target fishing mortality used to provide management advice based on the current harvest policy for Bristol Bay red king crab also declined over time in response to declining survival rates. However, the impacts of ocean acidification due to reduced pre-recruit survival on yield and profits are likely to be limited for the next 10–20 years, and its effects will likely be masked by natural variation in pre-recruit survival. This analysis is an initial step toward a fully integrated understanding of the impact of ocean acidification on fishery yields and profits, and could be used to focus future research efforts.