Adapting the adaptive cycle: Hypotheses on the development of ecosystem properties and services

Ecosystems are dynamic complexes. These dynamics can be described by different ecophysiological parameters and systems theoretical concepts like succession, thermodynamics, information/network theory, resilience, adaptability and the orientor concept. In this paper, different indicators and concepts are linked to Holling's adaptive cycle metaphor in order to derive hypotheses on potential system trajectories. The hypotheses focus on an exemplary temperate forest ecosystem experiencing the adaptive cycle's four phases of exploitation, conservation, collapse and reorganization after an initializing fire event. The different properties are correlated to the number of total system connections and show varying trajectories. Additionally, the provision of selected forest ecosystem services during the different phases is hypothesized and compared to three other land use types.

► Holling's adaptive cycle concept was used to hypothesize on trajectories of different ecosystem properties and ecosystem service provision.
► The dynamics of an exemplary forest ecosystem, starting a characteristic succession after a fire event, were described and translated into various figure-eight models referring to different ecosystem properties.
► Forest ecosystem service provision was shown and compared to urban and rural landscapes.