Modelling the effect of in-stream and overland dispersal on gene flow in river networks

Modelling gene flow across natural landscapes is a current challenge of population genetics. Models are essential to make clear predictions about conditions that cause genetic differentiation or maintain connectivity between populations. River networks are a special case of landscape matrix. They represent stretches of habitat connected according to a branching pattern where dispersal is usually limited to upstream or downstream movements. Because of their peculiar topology, and the increasing concern about conservation issues in hydrosystems, there has been a recent revival of interest in modelling dispersal in river networks. Network complexity has been shown to influence global population differentiation. However, geometric characteristics are likely to interact with the way individuals move across space. Studies have focused on in-stream movements. None of the work published so far took into consideration the ability of many species to disperse overland between branches of the same network though. We predicted that the relative contribution of these two dispersal modalities (in-stream and overland) would affect the overall genetic structure. We simulated dispersal in synthetic river networks using an individual-based model. We tested the effect of dispersal modalities, i.e. the ratio of overland/in-stream dispersal, and two geometric parameters, bifurcation angle between branches and network complexity. Data revealed that if geometrical parameters affected population differentiation, dispersal parameters had the strongest effect. Interestingly, we observed a quadratic relationship between p the proportion of overland dispersers and population differentiation. We interpret this U-shape pattern as a balance between isolation by distance caused by in-stream movements at low values of p and intense migrant exchanges within the same branching unit at high values of p. Our study is the first attempt to model out-of-network movements. It clearly shows that both geometric and dispersal parameters interact. Both should be taken into consideration in order to refine predictions about dispersal and gene flow in river network.