Modelling the Karenia mikimotoi bloom that occurred in the western English Channel during summer 2003

Observations from space and in situ from the R.V. Corystes 8/03 Cruise show that a massive Karenia mikimotoi bloom occured during summer 2003 in the western English Channel. Due to exceptional climatoligical conditions that occured in June 2003, the installation of a very strong thermocline enhanced the development of a massive bloom over 1 million cells l−1 in the Central English Channel. This paper presents the application of a mathematical model of this species, previously developed in for the Bay of Biscay, into a general 3D model of the primary production of the English Channel and southern Bight of the North Sea. Allelopathic interactions exerted by K. mikimotoi on other phytoplankton species and the role of agitation in the mortality of this species are taken into account. The model includes the dynamics of the bloom and consequently reproduces with good agreement the geographical distribution of the K. mikimotoi bloom both surface and subsurface. The model suggests that the apparent transport of the bloom towards the French coasts as inferred from the satellite observation was not due to advection but was only caused by the establishment of suitable conditions. The sensivity of the K. mikimotoi distribution to boundary conditions, initialization and the role of turbulence is discussed.