An individual based model of a sea turtle population to analyze effects of age dependent mortality

Effective conservation of wildlife species relies on our ability to recognize interactions among critical life stages, leading to the design of the appropriate protection measures. We developed an individual based model to analyze the variability of extinction probabilities as a result of interacting mortalities at different life stages of a sea turtle population. We conducted several simulation with different combinations of mortality rates for both terrestrial stages (i.e. egg and hatchling), and also for all marine stages of the species. To test and assess the implication of the numerous simulation sets produced by the fluctuating survival rates, counter plots were employed. The results of the simulation analysis show that the pelagic stage has a significant effect on population persistence. It is also apparent that increased survival of the first year cohort could to some extent be beneficial for the population. The need for additional demographic data and a better understanding of the behavioral and biological processes is highlighted.