Spatio-temporal changes of a mangrove–saltmarsh ecotone in the northeastern coast of Florida, USA

• We found mangrove expansion/contraction near their northern range limit.
• Significant effect of climate variables on habitat areal extent.
• Cyclical spatio-temporal dynamism over a 71-year period.
• Reversals in habitat dominance may point to complex biotic–abiotic interactions.
• Results may contribute to management/conservation strategies under climate change.

General circulation models predict warming trends and changes in temperature and precipitation patterns that have the potential to alter the structure and function of coastal habitats. The purpose of this study was to quantify the expansion and contraction of mangroves and saltmarsh habitats and assess the impact of climate on these landscape changes. The study was conducted in a mangrove/saltmarsh ecotone in Flagler County, FL, near the northern range limit of mangroves along the Atlantic coast of North America. We used time series of historical aerial photography and high-resolution multispectral satellite imagery from 1942 to 2013 to quantify changes in the extent of mangrove and saltmarsh vegetation and compared these changes to climate variables of temperature and precipitation, temperature–seasonality, as well as historical sea-level data. Results showed increases in mangrove extent of 89% between 1942 and 1952, and a continuous increase from 1995 to 2013. Largest decrease in saltmarsh extent occurred between 1942 and 1952 (-136%) and between 2008 and 2013 (-81%). We found significant effects of precipitation, temperature, seasonality, and time on mangrove and saltmarsh areal extent. The statistical effect of sea-level was rather small, but we speculate that it might have ecological impacts on these two coastal ecosystems. Results also showed a cyclical dynamism as well as a reversal in habitat dominance, which may be the result of complex interactions between plant habitats and several environmental drivers of change such as species interactions, and hydrological changes induced by sea-level rise, in addition to temperature and precipitation effects. Our results on mangrove/saltmarsh expansion and contraction may contribute to the improvement of management and conservation strategies for coastal ecosystems being impacted by climate change.