Post-fire ecological succession: A theoretical modeling framework

Fire is considered as an extreme disturbance in Mediterranean grasslands or shrublands as it often brings about many sudden changes in the vegetation structure, composition, and diversity patterns. In addition, it creates opportunities for exotic plant species to establish successfully in foreign habitat, and to outperform dominating native species. Monitoring and simulating post-fire successional changes, therefore, are essential tasks to efficiently restore native grasslands or shrublands. In this paper, we develop a theoretical framework for simulating fire-induced successional changes, mainly for Mediterranean vegetation, based on a three-level hierarchy of successional causes. Within this proposed framework, fire effects are considered by associating it with the number of burned sites open-up and specific changes at the burned sites relative to unburned sites. Three distinct site-specific neighborhoods are constructed; changes within each neighborhood allow sequential replacement of plant species by another plant species with greater maximum size, age and lower maximum growth rates and dispersal abilities. The proposed framework can be used to develop a spatially explicit individual-based model which will be useful for monitoring and predicting successional changes and hence for restoring native grasslands or shrublands.