Plants on the move: The role of seed dispersal and initial population establishment for climate-driven range expansions

Recent climate change will presumably allow many plant species to expand their geographical range up to several hundred kilometres towards the poles within a few decades. Much uncertainty exists however to which extent species will actually be able to keep pace with a rapidly changing climate. A suite of direct and indirect research approaches have explored the phenomenon of range expansions, and the existing evidence is scattered across the literature of diverse research subdisciplines. Here I attempt to synthesise the available information within a population ecological framework in order to evaluate implications of patterns of seed dispersal and initial population establishment for range expansions. After introducing different study approaches and their respective contributions, I review the empirical evidence for the role of long-distance seed dispersal in past and ongoing expansions. Then I examine how some major ecological determinants of seed dispersal and colonisation processes - population fecundity, dispersal pathways, arrival site conditions, and biotic interactions during recruitment - could be altered by a rapidly changing climate. While there is broad consensus that long-distance dispersal is likely to be critical for rapid range expansions, it remains challenging to relate dispersal processes and pathways with the establishment of pioneer populations ahead of the continuous species range. Further transdisciplinary efforts are clearly needed to address this link, key for understanding how plant populations ’move’ across changing landscapes.

► It is uncertain how rapidly species ranges can shift in response to climate change.
► This review synthesises evidence from various related research subdisciplines.
► I explore the role of long-distance dispersal during past and ongoing expansions.
► I examine how determinants of dispersal and expansion processes could change.
► Linking seed dispersal with the foundation of new populations remains a challenge.