Challenging conservation of migratory species: Sahelian rainfalls drive first-year survival of the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel Falco naumanni

In the context of attested global changes, accurate estimation of whether climatic fluctuations impact on population demographic parameters is needed for adequate management, especially for migratory species. We present a capture–recapture analysis linking survival rates of the vulnerable Lesser Kestrel (Falco naumanni) to annual rainfalls in the Sahel region, considered as a proxy of climatic conditions on wintering grounds. Recapture data were obtained from field observations of individuals ringed and sexed as juveniles over a 14-year monitoring period (1994–2007). We addressed a common but problematic situation in birds where: (i) sex is known with certainty for first-summer or older birds but only suspected for juveniles, and (ii) a large proportion of individuals never return to the study population (e.g. transient behavior). Transient behavior and unknown sexes were explicitly integrated considering a two age class in a multistate capture–recapture model. Survival was time-varying for juveniles (geometric mean: 0.499 ± 0.021) but constant – and higher – for adults (0.718 ± 0.013). Yearling survival probabilities were strongly correlated with rainfalls in the Sahel, suggesting a high dependence of juvenile upon the wintering conditions. While taking sex uncertainty into account, we detected no sex-dependence in survival. Incorporating the sensitivity of survival of wintering migratory birds to climatic variables such as precipitations in arid Sahelian ecosystem may allow to model conservation scenarios with a greater realism. Finally, we encourage the development of international management strategies for migratory species on wintering areas in addition to the existing conservation actions on summering Mediterranean grounds.