Long-term trends in the abundance of Mediterranean wetland vertebrates: From global recovery to localized declines

Biodiversity loss is unevenly distributed in space and time. Species have reached critically low population sizes in some areas, and remain abundant in others. Similarly, some species may benefit from successful conservation plans, while others still experience severe population depletions driven by negative impacts of human activities. Although several indicators have been proposed to measure the fate of biodiversity, they are generally only implemented globally so their relevance for regional assessment is still unclear. Here, we calculated the first regional trend in the Living Planet Index for the Mediterranean wetlands (Med LPI), an indicator that summarizes the fate of global biological diversity based on the temporal trends in abundance of vertebrate populations. The Med LPI was based on 1641 vertebrate populations of 311 species recorded in Mediterranean wetlands from 1970–2008, in 27 different countries. We investigated whether trends in the Med LPI differed between eastern and western Mediterranean countries, which have different socio-economic contexts. Finally, we assessed whether and how the trend in the Med LPI was robust to changes in the number and identity of species considered. We found that, at the Mediterranean scale, the Med LPI increased steeply, which could be taken at first sight, as a general recovery of wetland biodiversity in this biogeographical region. However, we found highly contrasting spatial trends within the Mediterranean region: the average trend was positive for western and negative for eastern countries. Moreover, we showed that depending on the method used to estimate the trend in Med LPI, it can be sensitive to the number and identity of the species considered. We suggest that understanding the regional discrepancies of the trend in biodiversity indicators as well as their robustness to the species represented in the index will enhance progress assessment towards global and regional conservation strategies.