Use of monitoring data and population viability analysis to inform reintroduction decisions: Peregrine falcons in the Midwestern United States

The peregrine falcon (Falco peregrinus anatum) has not yet recolonized natural cliff sites in Illinois and much of the lower Midwestern US, and remains restricted to urban areas. We constructed a landscape-linked population viability analysis using RAMAS/GIS software to compare possible reintroduction strategies for the species. Habitat-specific (i.e. cliff and urban) demographic parameters such as survival, fecundity, and dispersal rates were derived from the Midwest Peregrine Society Database for peregrines in the central Mississippi River region during 1982-2006. We simulated a base scenario of no reintroduction and 18 models of reintroduction with varying cohort sizes, supplementation schedules, and number of reintroduction sites, and used the Lake Superior population to test our model. Our analysis indicated that even without reintroductions in Illinois, the peregrine population in the lower Midwestern region is slowly increasing and is not likely to go extinct. Recolonization of cliff sites in southern Illinois likely will occur via dispersal from urban populations, however further research on dispersal rates between urban areas and cliffs is needed. Analysis indicated that the most cost-effective reintroduction strategy would be priced at approximately $280,000 and would result in only two additional breeding pairs compared to the no-action scenario. Thus, funds would be more effectively used in other management efforts such as habitat preservation. This study provides an example of how post-release monitoring can be used to inform future reintroduction plans.