Structural characteristics of a low Arctic tundra ecosystem and the retreat of the Arctic fox

We conducted a large-scale, campaign-based survey in Finnmark, northern Norway to evaluate the proposition that declining Arctic fox populations at the southern margin of the Arctic tundra biome result from fundamental changes in the state of the ecosystem due to climatic warming. We utilized the fact that the decline of the Arctic fox in Finnmark has been spatially heterogeneous by contrasting ecosystem state variables between regions and landscape areas (within regions) with and without recent Arctic fox breeding.Within the region of Varanger peninsula, which has the highest number of recorded dens and the most recent breeding records of Arctic fox, we found patterns largely consistent with a previously proposed climate-induced, bottom-up trophic cascade that may exclude the Arctic fox from tundra. Landscape areas surrounding dens without recent Arctic breeding were here more productive than areas with recent breeding in terms of biomass of palatable and climate sensitive plants, the number of insectivorous passerines and predatory skuas. Even the frequency of unspecified fox scats was the highest in landscape areas where arctic fox breeding has ceased, consistent with an invasion of the competitively dominant red fox. The comparisons made at the regional level were not consistent with the results within the Varanger region, possibly due to different causal factors or to deficiencies in Arctic fox monitoring at a large spatial scale. Thus long-term studies and adequate monitoring schemes with a large-scale design needs to be initiated to better elucidate the link between climate, food web dynamics and their relations to Arctic and red foxes.