Adaptive range selection by golden eagles in a changing landscape: A multiple modelling approach

Land abandonment is causing considerable woodland expansion in many mountainous areas of Europe, with potential repercussions on conservation-sensitive species typical of open habitats. We examined the potential impact of such changes on an alpine golden eagle population, by estimating the ranges potentially used by the eagles for foraging through different techniques (concentric circles of different radii and a tessellation-method based on telemetry data). Compared to randomly located territories, eagles selected ranges farther away from conspecifics, characterised by a rugged topography and rich in main prey species and in open habitats favoured by their main prey species, such as grassland, shrubs, xerophytic vegetation and rocky outcrops. Similarly, nest spacing and breeding success were related to the availability of optimal foraging habitats, also favoured by the main prey species of the eagles. Even though woodland-variables did not enter any of the stepwise models, eagles were dependent on grassland habitats, currently lost to woodland at a rate of about 0.5–1% per year, and on shrub vegetation rapidly evolving into woodland, which accounted on average for almost 10% of the eagle ranges. Long-term loss of such habitat may imply up to a 66% woodland increase for some eagle ranges. Given the complexity of the uncovered relationships and difficulty to make firm predictions, subsidies to halt the abandonment of traditional agro-pastoral practices seem urgently needed.