Inferring habitat-suitability areas with ecological modelling techniques and GIS: A contribution to assess the conservation status of Vipera latastei

Some snakes are highly vulnerable to extinction due to several life history traits. However, the elusive behavior and secretive habits of some widespread species constrain the collection of demographic and ecological data necessary for the identification of extinction-prone species. In this scenario, the enhancement of ecological modelling techniques in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is providing researchers with robust tools to apply to such species. This study has identified the environmental factors that limit the current distribution of Vipera latastei, a species with secretive behavior, and has evaluated how human activities affect its current conservation status, identifying areas of best habitat suitability in the Iberian Peninsula. Ecological-niche factor analysis (ENFA) indicated low marginality (0.299) and high tolerance (0.887) scores, suggesting strong tendency for the species to live in average conditions throughout the study area and to inhabit any of the environmental conditions. The analysis also revealed that this viper tends to select particular Mediterranean habitats, although topographic factors (altitude and slope) were the major environmental constraints for the Iberian distribution pattern of the species. The presence of other parapatric viper species in the north of the Iberian Peninsula (V. aspis and V. seoanei) and two human-related variables (landscape transformation and human density) also had a negative relation with the occurrence of V. latastei. All factors can explain its absence in northern Iberia and its fragmented distribution as currently is found mostly in mountains and relatively undisturbed low-altitude areas. The historical destruction and alteration of natural Mediterranean habitats and several life-history traits of the species contribute to its vulnerability to extinction. The ENFA analysis proved to be an outstanding method to evaluate the factors that limit the distribution range of secretive and widespread species such as V. latastei, updating evaluation of their conservation status.