Maxent modeling for predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant, Justicia adhatoda L. in Lesser Himalayan foothills

The population of the medicinal plant, Malabar nut (Justicia adhatoda L.) is shrinking in Dun valley due to habitat fragmentation, invasion by Lantana camara, over-exploitation, and an ever-increasing human population – the most important being the increasing demand on land for agriculture, industries and the urbanization. Predicting potential geographic distribution of the species is important from species and habitat restoration point of view. This paper reports the results of a study carried out in the Lesser Himalayan foothills in India (Dun valley) on potential distribution modeling for Malabar nut using Maxent model. The Worldclim bioclimatic variables, slope, aspect, elevation, and the land use/land cover (based on IRS LISS-III) data and 46 spatially well-dispersed species occurrence points were used to predict the potential distribution of J. adhatoda in ca. 1877 km2 study area. Jackknife test was used to evaluate the importance of the environmental variables for predictive modeling. Maxent model was highly accurate with a statistically significant AUC value of 92.3. The approach could be promising in predicting the potential distribution of medicinal plant species and thus, can be an effective tool in species restoration and conservation planning.