Variability of phytoplankton biomass in a lowland river: Response to climate conditions

The results are presented of an intensive study of phytoplankton assemblage carried out in the Berounka River above its confluence with the Vltava River (Czech Republic) in the period 2002–2007. The annual and interannual changes of phytoplankton development (based on high frequency of sampling) and their relation to hydrological conditions and concentrations of main nutrients are analysed. A marked decline of nutrient concentrations was observed during the period 1996–2007. The annual mean values of total P decreased from 0.43 mg L−1 to 0.16 mg L−1, those of N-NO3 from 4.6 mg L−1 to 1.5 mg L−1 and N-NH4 from 1.9 mg L−1 to 0.04 mg L−1. Despite this, the phytoplankton biomass remained at a high level. The seasonal mean values of chlorophyll-a ranged from 51.0 μg L−1 to 116.8 μg L−1 in the same time period. An obviously stronger relationship was found of the phytoplankton biomass and pattern of its development to the variation of flow rates than to the existing level of nutrient concentrations. A significantly decreasing relationship (R2 = 0.384, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to flow rates and a significantly increasing relationship (R2 = 0.359, P < 0.001) of chlorophyll-a to water temperatures were found, based on monthly mean values for the seasonal period 2002–2007. The results obtained indicate a remarkable increase of phytoplankton biomass and its prolongated occurrence in watercourses, which can be expected due to the consequences of the predicted climate change (i.e. higher occurrence of summer droughts and low precipitation amounts accompanied by a substantial drop of flow rates, increase of air and water temperatures), as described in the respective scenarios for the territory of the Czech Republic. Simulations by the regional climate models HIRHAM and RCAO and emission scenario SRES indicated the increase of air temperature by 2.5–5 °C, decrease of precipitation amount by 6–25% and decline of flows by 14–43% in the Berounka River for the scenario period 2071–2100.