Reconciling alternative models of phenological development in winter wheat

Simulation of the timing of anthesis in wheat crops is achieved using two very different approaches. The older of these simulates progress to flowering by calculating the duration of phases between significant events on the shoot apex. The alternative method tracks development through leaf appearance, using the prediction of final mainstem leaf number to control the duration of the phase from emergence to flowering. Although these methods appear to differ substantially, we show in this paper that the number of leaves on the mainstem when the stage of terminal spikelet occurs is extremely tightly coupled to final mainstem leaf number. We conclude that accurate prediction of the terminal spikelet stage or similar prediction of mainstem leaf number amount to the same thing, so reconciling the methods.