کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
4511531 1624748 2007 9 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Towards better understanding and value
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم زیستی و بیوفناوری علوم کشاورزی و بیولوژیک علوم زراعت و اصلاح نباتات
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Seasonal climate forecasts for agriculture: Towards better understanding and value
چکیده انگلیسی

Two approaches to obtaining more valuable seasonal climate forecasts for Australian agriculture are described. The first involves obtaining a better understanding of the climate system by exploring the individual synoptic weather events that make up seasonal climate. An examination of rainfall events in north-west Victoria indicates that there is one dominant synoptic system that is responsible for the majority of useful rainfall: the cutoff low. An exploration of the physics of these systems reveals that the moisture sources are most likely to be from the oceans north of Australia, while the frequency and intensity might be controlled by ocean temperatures to the south. The second approach involves an examination of the potential value of different forecast systems using a century-long simulation of the growth of a wheat crop in north-west Victoria. It is concluded that a perfect forecast of the growing season rainfall total is likely to provide less than half the potential value of an ideal forecast system.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Field Crops Research - Volume 104, Issues 1–3, October–December 2007, Pages 130–138
نویسندگان
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