Testing German shepherd puppies to assess their chances of certification

Behavioral activity of 7-week-old German shepherd puppies was tested and the activities analyzed if they could be used for predicting police efficiency of the individual. In total 206 individuals sired by 42 sires and 44 dams were used. The activities were divided into 10 tasks in which reactions and behavior of pups were scored from 0 to 5 points. All pups were tested separately from other conspecifics. Probability that the puppy will pass the certification was tested by a logistic regression. Of the 206 puppies, 148 passed the certification while 58 failed. Some tested behavioral variables were moderately to highly correlated with one another. Therefore we applied a factor analysis. Three factors were retained accounting for 100% of the shared variance. After inspection of the rotated factor pattern matrix and its confidence intervals, it appeared that variables “Independent movement and interactions with the tester”, “Negotiating obstacles”, “Entering a room”, “Behavior toward a person”, and “Behavior in new environments” loaded on Factor 1 (“Factor for movement”), while variables “Response to distracting stimuli caused by a shovel”, “Response to a distracting noise while left alone in a room”, and “Response to loud distracting stimuli” on Factor 2 (“Factor for responding to noise”) and variables “Retrieval” and “Tug of war” on Factor 3 (“Factor for attitude to predation”). In the final logistic regression model, the probability that the puppy will pass the certification depended on the higher weight at the time of testing (χ(1)2=12.00, P = 0.0005), on the “Factor for attitude to predation” (χ(1)2=11.63, P = 0.0007), on the “Factor for responding to noise”, where the higher the score, the weaker was the response (χ(1)2=5.16, P = 0.0232), and on the “Factor for movement” showing an increasing probability with decreasing score (χ(1)2=5.25, P = 0.0219). The tests in our study seem to be a good base which might enable selection for suitable dogs as early as 7 weeks of age. The puppies having high probability to pass certification in adulthood were heavy individuals willing to chase, catch, and fetch a tennis ball, and follow a rag drawn away from them, while weakly responding to a distracting noise in various situations and showing low activity while negotiating obstacles and moving and interacting with the tester. To conclude, contrary to skeptical assumptions expressed by various authors, the specific puppy tests for police dogs provide a reliable tool for predicting future service ability of a puppy. Differences in methodology are likely to contribute to a lack of consensus among various studies.