Influence of temperature on embryo developmental cycles and mortality of female Chionoecetes opilio (snow crab) on the Scotian Shelf, Canada

Chionoecetes opilio (snow crab) in Atlantic Canada is a valuable fishery. A key factor in the conservation and sustainability of C. opilio is the length of its reproductive cycle, which in different regions has been observed to be ca. 1 or 2 years and temperature dependent. Ten years of embryo colour (a proxy for embryo development) data from the Scotia Shelf (SS) is analyzed using a binomial Generalized Linear Model. The influences of temperature and time variations upon the transition of early developmental stages are described. Over 80% of the females were estimated to follow a ∼1 year reproductive cycle, corresponding to the relative proportion of springtime SS bottom temperatures greater than 1 °C. As an upper bound, total annual larval production is expected to have ranged from 280 billion and 32 trillion since 1997 with an associated female mortality from larval stage to maturity of 63–81% per annum (Z = 1–1.65). Climate variability can therefore have a large influence upon the total potential reproductive output. Global Circulation Models predict that there will be more positive North Atlantic Oscillation years for the North Atlantic, assuming this to be the case we speculate that the associated warmer bottom temperatures along the central and west SS would lead to even greater percentages of the C. opilio females entering a 1 year reproductive cycle, whereas cooling along the eastern shelf (where the majority of the population resides) would shrink the warm water habitat available and potentially force more females into a two year cycle. If the magnitude of warming extends beyond C. opilio's preferred range, the entire population may shift north-east.