A surplus production model with latent truncation and species targeting, with an application to Papua New Guinean fisheries

This paper first reviews traditional bio-economic models of catch–effort equilibrium and later contributions based on augmented and revised specifications. To overcome some of the pitfalls in fisheries analysis, an approach is formulated which accounts for latent truncation in the fishing fleet, species targeting and non-linear long-term relationships among catch, effort and biomass. The procedure is applied to purse seine and longline offshore marine fisheries in Papua New Guinea, where tuna and other fish resources are believed to be under-exploited on the whole, but selective overfishing is reported to take place. Statistical evidence of incidental truncation is weak, with results being sensitive to the selection of variables. Based on regression diagnostics and expected signs/statistical significance of parameter estimates, non-linear surplus production specifications prove to be more suited than original and unrestricted versions of the conventional approach for modelling the dominant (purse seine) fishery in PNG over the period 1979–2007, with both main and secondary target fishing being found not to exceed the maximum sustainable yield. In either case, policy implications of these results should be pondered against underreporting of official fish catches.