Post-larval settlement of California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus in Bahía Tortugas, Baja California and its relationship to the commercial catch

Based on data series for 8 consecutive years of settlement of post-larvae of the California spiny lobster Panulirus interruptus, its relationship to commercial catch was examined. The purpose was to establish a database to build a model for prediction of commercial catches of this lobster. The study area is a rocky shelf southwest of the bay entrance of Bahía Tortugas in Baja California Sur. A set of artificial collectors was placed at this site to obtain postpuerulus and early juveniles settlement for each month. Different simple regression analyses were performed on annual series of mean rates of post-larval settlement vs. commercial catches by the Bahía Tortugas fishing cooperative. We tested several delay periods between the series (4–8 years to approximate the age of fishery recruitment) to find the best-fit relationship. The relationship with a 5-year delay showed the highest positive correlation (0.7925) and was statistically significant. This delay period was used to regress the data for the years 1993–2001. The results showed that variations in the abundance of settled post-larvae in a given year are reflected in the commercial catch 5 years later and exhibit the same upward or downward trend. The one exception was the high post-larval settlement rate in 1997–1998, coinciding with the El Niño event, which was not mirrored by a similar increase 5 years later in the 2002–2003 catch. The pre-recruit index seems a very promising tool for predicting catches for this lobster fishery.