Dynamics of potentially harmful microalgae in a confined Mediterranean Gulf—Assessing the risk of bloom formation

The population dynamics of potentially harmful microalgae was investigated in the semi-enclosed shallow Gulf of Kalloni, Greece (Aegean Sea, Eastern Mediterranean), during a 2-year period from August 2004 to March 2006. A total of 21 potentially harmful microalgae (bloom-forming and/or toxic) were identified including 3 diatoms and 18 dinoflagellates. The densities of each species were analyzed in time and space and in relation to environmental parameters. Some species such as Alexandrium insuetum, Heterocapsa circularisquama, Karlodinium veneficum, Scrippsiella trochoidea, and Ceratium spp. developed high cell concentrations, particularly during a Pseudo-nitzschia calliantha winter bloom. Other species such as Dinophysis caudata, Ostreopsis ovata, Prorocentrum minimum, and Protoperidinium crassipes were rare or appeared in small numbers. Densities of the most abundant species were closely associated with freshwater nutrient-rich inputs during winter, being negatively correlated with temperature and salinity and positively correlated with nitrogen. The spatial distribution of the abundant species exhibited a marked increase towards the inner part of the gulf, close to the main freshwater inputs, whereas some species were mainly concentrated in the dilute surface layer (1 m depth). Examination of the abundance–occupancy relationship revealed that the species more prone to bloom are those with wide spatial distribution and frequent presence throughout the year such as the diatom P. calliantha. Although blooms of cyst-forming species are rarer, an increased risk can be foreseen under favorable resource supply and environmental conditions during winter.