Modular analysis and modelling of risk scenarios with dependencies

The risk analysis of critical infrastructures such as the electric power supply or telecommunications is complicated by the fact that such infrastructures are mutually dependent. We propose a modular approach to the modelling and analysis of risk scenarios with dependencies. Our approach may be used to deduce the risk level of an overall system from previous risk analyses of its constituent systems. A custom made assumption-guarantee style is put forward as a means to describe risk scenarios with external dependencies. We also define a set of deduction rules facilitating various kinds of reasoning, including the analysis of mutual dependencies between risk scenarios expressed in the assumption-guarantee style.