Cost forecasting of passive components for optical fiber network deployments

To analyze the costs of deploying any optical fiber network, it is critical to know the evolution of prices of its individual components in time. In this paper we investigate on the pricing and installation costs of several passive optical components, focusing as an example on optical fiber connectors, and present reliable data price trends for them. We then propose future costs based on parametric methods and the application of the extended learning curve model. The key contributions of this analysis are the accurate learning coefficients extracted for each type of optical component, ranging from 0.66 to 0.96 for fiber connectors or 0.88 for fiber cables, which can serve as valuable inputs to more complex, higher-level techno-economical models. Large price drops of 33% for splitters and 78% for attenuators have been also identified with these methods for the following years.

Research highlights
► Individual component costs are critical for the economic planning of fiber networks.
► Historical costs of connectors, adapters, cables, splitters and attenuators are analyzed.
► Learning coefficients are extracted for each component type, with 5-year forecasts.
► Fiber and connector prices are stable, splitters and attenuators expect large drops.
► Plastic optical fiber connectors and network installation costs are also analysed.