A simulation model of insulin saturation and glucose balance for glycemic control in ICU patients

Consistent tight blood sugar control in critically ill patients has proven elusive. Properly accounting for the saturation of insulin action and reducing the need for frequent measurements are important aspects in intensive insulin therapy. This paper presents a composite metabolic model, ‘Glucosafe’, that integrates models and parameters from normal physiology and accounts for the reduced rate of glucose gut absorption and saturation of insulin action in patients with reduced insulin sensitivity. Particularly, two different sites of reduced insulin sensitivity, before and after the non-linearity of insulin action, are explored with this model. These approaches are assessed based on the model’s accuracy in retrospectively predicting blood glucose measurements of 10 randomly chosen, hyperglycemic intensive care patients. For each patient, median absolute percent error is <25% for prediction times ≤270≤270 min and modelling reduced insulin sensitivity after the non-linearity, compared to <29% for modelling reduced insulin sensitivity before the non-linearity. Scaling the insulin effect (after the non-linearity) is a suitable assumption in this model structure. These results are preliminary and subject to further and more extensive validation of the model’s capability to predict the longer term (>2 h) blood glucose excursion in critically ill patients.