A model evaluating effect of disaster warning issuance conditions on “cry wolf syndrome” in the case of a landslide

This study proposes a model that clarifies how disaster warning issuance conditions affect “cry wolf” syndrome. The disaster assumed in this study is landslide caused by heavy rainfall. Local authorities that issue disaster warnings are thought to tend to avoid the situation where casualty occurs without the issuance to residents of a disaster warning. As a result, the issuance conditions may be relaxed. Under this circumstance, however, the residents are thought to tend to ignore disaster warnings, since such warnings are inaccurate. Thus may emerge the “cry wolf” syndrome. In this study, a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents has been developed. For the purpose of demonstrating the model, numerical experiments were then carried out. In the numerical experiments, the effects of optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings on the cost incurred by the resident were evaluated by using assumed parameters for the model.

► Development of a simulation model that expresses the behaviors of the local authority and the residents.
► Optimal issuance conditions for disaster warnings are neither too stringent nor too relaxed.
► Long-term cost which the resident has to pay can be minimized at the optimal issuance conditions.