کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
477005 | 1446097 | 2011 | 13 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
Public policy response to global climate change presents a classic problem of decision making under uncertainty. Theoretical work has shown that explicitly accounting for uncertainty and learning in climate change can have a large impact on optimal policy, especially technology policy. However, theory also shows that the specific impacts of uncertainty are ambiguous. In this paper, we provide a framework that combines economics and decision analysis to implement probabilistic data on energy technology research and development (R&D) policy in response to global climate change. We find that, given a budget constraint, the composition of the optimal R&D portfolio is highly diversified and robust to risk in climate damages. The overall optimal investment into technical change, however, does depend (in a non-monotonic way) on the risk in climate damages. Finally, we show that in order to properly value R&D, abatement must be included as a recourse decision.
► We combine data with an economic model to derive stochastic abatement cost curves.
► We develop a stochastic energy technology R&D portfolio model.
► We analyze the structure of optimal climate change energy technology R&D portfolio.
► Based on existing data, the optimal portfolio is robust to climate damage risk.
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 213, Issue 2, 1 September 2011, Pages 442–454