کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
477040 | 1446100 | 2011 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Evaluating pharmaceutical R&D under technical and economic uncertainty
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی کامپیوتر
علوم کامپیوتر (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
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چکیده انگلیسی
This study sets up a compound option approach for evaluating pharmaceutical R&D investment projects in the presence of technical and economic uncertainties. Technical uncertainty is modeled as a Poisson jump that allows for failure and thus abandonment of the drug development. Economic uncertainty is modeled as a standard diffusion process which incorporates both up-and downward shocks. Practical application of this method is emphasized through a case analysis. We show that both uncertainties have a positive impact on the R&D option value. Moreover, from the sensitivity analysis, we find that the sensitivity of the option with respect to economic uncertainty and market introduction cost decreases when technical uncertainty increases.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 212, Issue 2, 16 July 2011, Pages 374–385
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 212, Issue 2, 16 July 2011, Pages 374–385
نویسندگان
Enrico Pennings, Luigi Sereno,