کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
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481671 | 1446180 | 2008 | 31 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
The mathematical theory of democracy operates on the indices of popularity and universality which are used to find socially optimal representatives and representative bodies. Regarded mathematically, neither the ‘society’, nor its ‘representatives’ are necessarily human, so that some objects can represent the behavior of other objects. This idea is applied to predicting the DAX-trends (German stock index) from the actual Dow-Jones data; the current fluctuations of stock prices in New York are regarded as representative indicators of future stock price fluctuations in Frankfurt. In particular, it is found that American Express anticipates on the average the price ±fluctuations of 2/3 of the DAX stocks. The statistical significance of the null hypothesis that such a bias from the uncertainty 50% can occur by chance is only 3.5%.
Journal: European Journal of Operational Research - Volume 185, Issue 3, 16 March 2008, Pages 1632–1662