Bottom-up Long-term Forecasting of Brazilian Commercial Class Electricity Consumption: First Results

In Brazil, the electricity consumption of the commercialclass has been growing more thanthe consumptionof the other classes, e.g. residential, industrial, and others. Understanding why this is happening and how it would progress is essential for policy makers and for agents of the electrical sector. Bottom-up models consider a detailed and disaggregated representation of a region's economy, and allow the incorporation of technological changes and policy impacts in its forecasts. In this context, the paper presents the first results of the long-term bottom-up modelling of Brazilian commercialclass electricity consumption. The bottom-up model used in this work is the FORECAST model adapted for Brazil. It differentiates the five regions of the country, 8 subsectors of the tertiary sector, and 14 building and end user related energy services, such as lighting in buildings, street lighting, ventilation and air conditioning, and others. Despitethe lack of consolidated information at the required level of disaggregation in Brazil, the first results show proximity to the official long-term forecasts. The results are analyzed and discussed.